Indian Markets Poised for Lift-Off: 10 Global Signals Fueling the Bull Run

The Indian stock market is gearing up for a dynamic start to the week, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 projected to open higher this Monday. A wave of positive global sentiment, fueled by an optimistic outlook on US-China trade relations and a continued ceasefire in the Middle East, is setting the stage for a potentially strong trading session.

Last week saw Asian markets trading firmly in the green, while Wall Street celebrated significant gains, with all three major US indexes notching up impressive weekly advances. This week, market watchers will be keenly observing a confluence of factors, including the intricate dance of US tariffs and trade negotiations, further developments in the Israel-Iran situation, a slew of initial public offerings (IPOs) and listings, the flow of foreign investments, the trajectory of crude oil prices, crucial macroeconomic data, and other international cues.

The Indian bourses closed Friday on a high note, extending their winning streak to four consecutive sessions. The benchmark Nifty 50 comfortably crossed the 25,600 mark, closing at 25,637.80, up 88.80 points or 0.35%. Meanwhile, the Sensex surged 303.03 points, or 0.36%, to settle at 84,058.90.

"The recent geopolitical stability has significantly bolstered risk sentiment, evidenced by broad-based market participation," commented Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd. "Furthermore, encouraging developments surrounding potential trade agreements could further strengthen this bullish bias. We maintain our 'buy on dips' recommendation for the index, emphasizing selective stock picking to uncover superior opportunities."

Here's a closer look at the key global market indicators influencing Sensex today:

Asian Markets Hum with Optimism

Asian markets began Monday trading higher as investors diligently analyzed the latest details from ongoing trade negotiations and a flurry of economic data from the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.68%, with the broader Topix index gaining 0.96%. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.85%, while the Kosdaq remained relatively flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures pointed towards a stronger opening, indicating widespread regional positivity.

Gift Nifty Hints at a Bright Start

Gift Nifty, a key indicator for the Indian market, was trading around the 25,770 level, showcasing a premium of nearly 20 points from Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a mildly positive opening for the Indian equity indices, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment.

Wall Street's Record-Breaking Run

The US stock market concluded Friday's trading session with significant gains, seeing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach new all-time closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 432.43 points (1.00%) to 43,819.27, while the S&P 500 added 32.05 points (0.52%) to close at 6,173.07. The Nasdaq Composite also gained 105.55 points (0.52%) to 20,273.46. All three major Wall Street indexes recorded impressive weekly gains.

Among notable individual movers, Nvidia shares rose 1.8%, and Amazon rallied 2.85%. Micron Technology shares eased 0.98%, and Tesla dropped 1.43%, while Nike shares delivered an impressive 15.2% jump.

US Inflation Remains Stable

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) in May saw a modest 0.1% increase, mirroring April's rise and aligning perfectly with economists' consensus estimates. Over the past 12 months through May, PCE inflation climbed 2.3%, a slight increase from April's 2.2%.

US-China Trade Deal Nears Resolution

In a significant development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the United States and China have successfully resolved issues surrounding shipments of rare earth minerals and magnets. He further indicated that the Trump administration’s trade deals with 18 of the main US trading partners could be finalized by the September 1 Labor Day holiday, signaling a potential de-escalation of trade tensions.

US Consumer Spending Sees Unexpected Dip

Contrary to expectations, US consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in May, following an unrevised 0.2% gain in April. This slight contraction surprised economists, who had projected a modest 0.1% increase.

US Consumer Sentiment Surges

On a more positive note, US consumer sentiment experienced a significant rebound in June, reaching a four-month high. The final June sentiment index climbed to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier, as reported by the University of Michigan, indicating renewed consumer confidence.

Japan's Factory Output Grows Moderately

Japanese factory output in May rose at a slower pace than anticipated, increasing by 0.5% from the previous month. This fell short of the median market forecast of a 3.5% rise. Manufacturers anticipate a 0.3% increase in June, followed by a 0.7% decrease in July.

Crude Oil Prices Ease Amid Geopolitical Calm

Crude oil prices softened by 1% as geopolitical risks in the Middle East eased and expectations of another OPEC output hike in August gained traction. Brent crude futures fell 0.97% to $67.11 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.31% to $64.66 a barrel.

Gold Prices Reflect Diminished Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices touched their lowest in over a month, as the easing of US-China trade tensions reduced the demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold price fell 0.3% to $3,264.64 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since May 29. US gold futures declined 0.4% to $3,275.30.